Midway Point | 450 Championship Chase

By Michael Antonovich

As the 2019 Monster Energy Supercross Series approaches the halfway point this weekend at the 2019 Atlanta Supercross, I took a few minutes to type out my thoughts on the top four riders in the 450 class during the flight to the ATL. Results are the one thing that everyone pays attention to, but my place as a sideline reporter-photographer-sit in the rig drinking coffee role gives a perspective that is a bit different than a stat sheet. I’ve been fortunate to see all four of the riders in the hunt through the entire professional careers and it’s important to note how much each has changed and matured over the years. And with all of them now well into their 20s and comfortable with their roles in the sport, we’re seeing them at their very best.

Cooper Webb | 173 Points

Anyone that says today, the first of March, that they saw this coming in the preseason is lying to you. A rider that ran his time in the 250 class with a level of confidence-arrogance, gamesmanship, and speed, Webb was drained of those traits during his two tumultuous years at Yamaha. As bad as losing the edge was, it was made worse by public detractors, many of whom were his biggest fans, and Webb told me he noticed the shift in public perception when the wins weren’t coming.

The move to Red Bull KTM brought a number of changes to Webb’s day to day program. He’s no longer “the guy” that has to set the pace the way he did to his old crew of 250 class training partners at his former compound in North Carolina, where it could be debated he dipped into a level of comfort that was detrimental. Now he’s one of the many front-runners at Aldon’s place in Florida, under the all-seeing eye of a trainer that doesn’t allow shortcuts, always held to a standard to be the best.

Webb’s race craft is back to what it was in 2016, as he’s cunning and quick on the bike, willing to send it over a big jump if it means making up time. But that air of arrogance is gone, both on and off the bike. There’s no starting line mind games to report, no rivalries with others on the track. He’s made amends with two of his biggest foes, Musquin and Roczen, by working alongside one daily and by racing the other close but clean on the weekend. Webb and Roczen even shared a handshake after the Minneapolis Main Event, an olive branch between two that just a year ago traded insults online and takeouts.

Can Cooper win the title this year? Yeah, he can. Will he? I don’t know, there are still a lot of laps left to be run and we’re all still reeling from his rise back to the top. Either way, 2019 will be a year that he should consider a success and what he learns this year will carry him for the rest of his career.

Ken Roczen | 167 Points

Many seem to think that this winless streak is eating at Roczen, yet I don’t fully agree. Sure, Ken would love to claim the checkered flag for the first time since 2017 because doing so would once and for all stop the speculation he’ll never recover from those arm injuries. But at the same time, he seems to be soaking in everything that happens during a weekend and is becoming a better rider because of it. Remember, Roczen has almost always been one of “the guys” in his pro career; the general consensus that comes with winning is that everything you’re doing at that moment works and you have to guard your knowledge against everyone. Instead, now Roczen is in a position to observe what everyone ahead of him is doing, the same way they did him all those years. As a rider that is not afraid to change things up in his training program, this is a perfect time for him to take notes of what everyone is doing. Also, it doesn’t hurt that two of his title rivals are a part of a program Roczen knows very, very well…

Do you see how much more Roczen seems to enjoy everything now? He and those around him have had their share of success and setbacks in the last few years, things that would break some people, but they seem to take it all in stride. And all of this will help Roczen in his long-term goal of becoming the face of the sport. He’s become even more personal with fans and friends at the races, he’s inking endorsement deals with companies outside our overly-extended industry, and he’s in the mix every weekend. When that win comes, it’ll be one of the biggest stories in the sport for 2019, without question.

Marvin Musquin | 161 Points

A lot of riders may say that they know how to play the “long game,” but it can be debated that Musquin is currently the best at it. Over the last few years, Musquin has claimed an important win or two in the early part of the season, dropped back to snag a series of second through fifth-place finishes, and then rallied at the end to take multiple wins and get back in the hunt.

He’s followed a slightly different path so far this season due to the knee injury he suffered in the offseason. Instead of a burst of speed at round one, Musquin started the season off of the podium at the first two races, then went five consecutive weeks on the podium, all the while earning necessary points for the championship. Nine weeks into the year, Musquin is back to full strength in his knee and in peak form as the series turns to the technical tracks on the East Coast, an area the rider excels in. If the track breaks down to the point that hopping through the whoops or cutting sharply under ruts in turns is the best option, well, there are few better at those moves than Musquin.

Maybe this is a reach, but Musquin’s 450 career seems to match up with Kevin Windham’s post-2004. Both have a number of wins to their credit, both have played the antagonist to the rider that ultimately won a championship, and both have remarkable riding styles. But Windham never won one of those titles, despite coming painstakingly close a number of times. Will Musquin’s fate be the same?

It’s also worth noting that at 29 years old, Musquin is the oldest rider in this group (Tomac is 26, Roczen is 24, and Webb is 23). With that said, it doesn’t seem like Musquin is in the “winding down” stage of his career and I cannot recall any talk of retirement regarding him from anyone in the industry. Like Windham, Musquin might just stretch his career into his mid-30s, which would allow for many more championship chases.

Eli Tomac | 160 Points

The truth almost always comes out in the end. Before I sat down to dinner with my family on Christmas Eve 2018, I was tasked with badgering anyone at Kawasaki that would answer if the rumors of Eli Tomac being injured were true. As expected, all my inquiries were shot down and I was told to wait until Anaheim One for an answer (we can argue why I didn’t post the rumor without confirmation from Kawasaki, even though we and many in the industry were 90-percent certain it was true, but I only have so many “piss off a team” cards to use a year and didn’t want to waste one on that). His reply to a reporter’s question at A1 press day was much the same, yet the full scope of the injury has come to the surface in recent weeks. Tomac has made it clear he missed a substantial amount of time in the offseason with a back injury, and that’s shown a few times this season. Getting up to speed is one thing, figuring out an all-new motorcycle for the varied tracks of the SX series is another.

Tomac has been consistent through the first half of the year, a page he and many others pulled from the Dungey playbook. While many panicked at his Arlington slide out and poor finish, we’ve come to find out these types of things bring the best out of Tomac just a few days later, and that’s exactly what happened in Detroit when he claimed a crucial overall victory and clawed his way back into championship contention.

It seems like Tomac does his best when he’s up against the odds, when risking it all for the win is the only way he’ll get a win. Yeah, it was cool to see him play it safe through the first part of the season, but that strategy is only so effective when every other competitor is doing it and is claiming wins at the same time. Don’t be surprised if Tomac goes on a tear these next few weeks, especially at Daytona, and enters the final part of the series within a few points of the red plate.